Jake Peavy? 2009 Predictions.
To the readers of my blog, "Braves Buzz with Luke" (at blogspot): I have officially joined the MLBlogs network. This is exciting. Okay, to Braves talk! --------------------------
After one of the most disappointing seasons since the late 80's, Braves fans have all the reason in the world to feel NUMB, BUMMED, etc. The majority of the season was nothing short of painful to watch. However, it takes a true Braves fan to realize that the Braves organization is on the uphill. Mind you, I am a glass half-full kind of guy, especially when it comes to the Atlanta Braves. I am fair with my opinions, though. And I try to discard any biased perspectives. As the Winter meetings approach, I feel compelled to share my 2009 Atlanta Braves starting roster predictions. *Disclaimer* I do not, in any way, claim that my predictions are absolutely truthful, in any respect. Though, I feel they are very close.
Let's get on with it, shall we?
Allow me to begin by addressing the team's urgent needs. Five words: Starting pitching and professional bats. That's it. The Braves are set with bullpen and bench depth.
Regarding the Braves' starting pitching needs, they need dependable pitching. If you can remember, expert baseball analysis, Peter Gammons, predicted the Braves to win the 2008 World Series during the 2008 Spring Training period. And believe it or not, no one gave him much of a fight. His prediction was based solely off of the big names that were apart of the initial rotation-- names such as, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, and Jair Jurrjens. How many of those were injury free during the 08' season? One. Now, that's pitiful. Actually, Jair Jurrjens went from the 5th spot to the ace. What a jump for a 22 year old, right? And boy, did he jump. He held the team's lowest ERA, a number of 3.68. Not too shabby for the rookie. You can count on him being in the rotation for many years to come.
So, what is GM Frank Wren planning to do to fix this problem? Frankly (no pun here), I'm not sure he even knows. We do know that he wants two experienced, top-caliber starting pitchers, which will be nearly impossible to obtain. However, I'm believing him to surprise Braves nation, just as he did with the Teixiera deal. Hopefully with this years acquisitions, his deals will last longer than the Tex deal.
So, who is Mr. Wren after?
Jake Peavy (don't let his bluffing fool you),AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, Jon Garland, Bronson Arroyo, Brad Penny, Oliver Perez, and possibly more. How many of these are actually possible? Maybe three. Who of these is most likely to be a Brave in 2009 season? Get ready, I'm about to rattle your little cage. Mr. Jake Peavy, my friends. Count on it.
As you may already know, the Padres' owner is going through what appears to be a nasty divorce, as his payroll is literally being cut in half-- from 78 million to around 40 million. The organization has already withdrawn their contract offer from the face of the franchise-- Trevor Hoffman. Simply enough, they are cutting costs so that they can rebuild with some young talent-- namely starting pitching talent. In reference to Jake Peavy, Padres' GM, Kevin Towers, has said, "The train has left the station." So there's no doubt that Peavy will be dealt. The question is where? Well, now that the Cubs have officially stated that they no longer have interest in pursuing Peavy, it looks like the Braves are the only ones left. The Braves, so far, have offered the best package in exchange for the services of Peavy. A package that includes future all-star short stop, Yunel Escobar. I will give it a week or so before Towers comes back knocking at Wren's door for Peavy. And don't be surprised if Wren is able to offer a slimmer package, which may include Braves' second baseman, Kelly Johnson, instead of Escobar. If it so happens that they must get rid of Escobar, you can bank on the Braves acquiring either of the two former Braves-- Rafael Furcal or Edgar Renteria. Edgar Renteria would be a cheaper option; however, it has been said that Furcal would be willing to offer a major, hometown discount. The kid loves manager Bobby Cox. And Cox loves him. On the other hand, Renteria would love to get the heck out of the AL, as his numbers have been exponentially higher in the NL.
Moving on...
Will the Braves be able to obtain AJ Burnett? Doubtful. Derek Lowe? Again, doubtful. Unfair clubs like the Yankees and Red Sox have a bit more money to spend. However, the Braves do have an estimated 50 million to spend this off-season. If they are able to obtain Jake Peavy, the likes of Burnett and Lowe would be more prone to come to Atlanta. Folks, free agent pitchers want to be signed to a team who has a chance to compete. And frankly, the National League Eastern Division is what I'd like to term, "packed heat," with the exception of the embarrassing Washington Nationals. Maybe President-elect Barack Obama can find a more hopeful team to represent our country. Geez.
Let's take a look at the outfield. What needs to happen here for the Braves to return to a winning form?
Firstly, Jeff Francoeur needs to return to his old self. During his first season and a half, the dude's energy, alone, could carry the Braves. He was dreadful to watch during the 08' season. Just dreadful. Not only did he lack his usual skill, but he was moping around like a little spoiled brat. Boy, did I get annoyed when he pitched a fit for having to go down to Double A! Ridiculous. Give me a break. Frenchy, you're only what 23 years old? 24? Sorry.
With the hopes of Frenchy returning to form, Mr. Wren is looking to acquire a power-hitting left fielder. Quite possibly, this left fielder will platoon with Braves left fielder, Matt Diaz. On Diaz, Wren has said, "He has worked hard all winter. He is in great shape." Mr. Wren has had several conversations with Chicago's GM regarding former Brave, Jermaine Dye. Jermaine Dye, alone, raked more homers last season than all of the Braves' outfield combined. That number was 34-- Dye's homers, that is. Wren has also been in conversation with the Cardinals regarding the possibility of acquiring Ryan Ludwick. Both of these two outfielders will need to rest periodically. So, a Matt Diaz platoon may be helpful. While Ludwick is a great offensive threat, he has been known for being injury prone. And as for Eye, he'll need to rest his old bones once in a while. Oh yeah, don't count out the possibility of the Braves getting Magglio Ordonez.
Enough of all of this.
Here are my predictions:
Starting Rotation:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Jon Garland / Bronson Arroyo
4. Mike Hampton
5. Tommy Hanson (Top Prospect)
Bullpen:
1. Mike Gonzalez
2. John Smoltz
3. Rafael Soriano
4. Peter Moylan
5. Does the rest even matter?
Starting Line-up: (and this is if we acquire Peavy)
1. Rafael Furcal SS
2. Martin Prado / Kelly Johnson
3. Chipper Jones 3B
4. Jermaine Dye LF
5. Brian McCann C
6. Jeff Francoeur RF
7. Casey Kotchman 1B
8. Jordan Schafer / Josh Anderson / Gregor Blanco CF
9. Pitcher
Thoughts, anyone?
Welcome!
The Braves have a far better chance now than anyone with the deal. Since the Cubs have dropped out of this dilemma, hopefully the deal will get done soon.
I like your prediction and I'll give you mine
C McCann
1st Kotchman
2nd Prado
3rd Jones
SS Renteria unless the Peavy deal can get done in a week. Then its Furcal
OF Schafer
OF Frenchy
OF Ludwick or Ankiel. One of them will be on the team.
1. Peavy
2. Jurrjens
3. Garland but I could also see Burnett instead of him if we offer five years.
4. Campillo
5. Redmond
Morton will probably get traded.
Reyes, Hanson, and James will see some time eventually this season and Hudson will replace whoever is on the 5th spot when he is back.
Bullpen
Smoltz
Soriano
Gonzalez
Acosta
Moylan
Burnett
Parr will move to the bullpen
Carlyle
Stockman- he will move up when someone gets injured
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Welcome to MLBlogs, Luke! Took the liberty of stealing your profile pic for the community blog just this once. Have fun here and stop by anytime.
Mark/MLB.com
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Welcome aboard, and good stuff. Love the idea of getting Dye back after all these years. He could be just the bat the Braves are looking for. I'm also one of those people that thinks that Peavy deal will get done. I will say that I think the bullpen has shown to be a key ingredient to the success of the Braves, as we've seen some pretty bad ones recently and a glut of blown saves. I just don't see Smoltz coming back to be a set-up guy or occasional reliever. His true value at this point would come as a starting pitcher in my opinion, and I think that is what he would prefer to do anyway. Look forward to chatting back and forth with you.
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Hey Mark, thanks for selecting my picture and giving me some PR. Much appreciated here.
I've tried commenting on your blog, but it's not letting me. Anyone know why?
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Sometimes you have to sign out and then sign back in to comment on some blogs.
http://darion.mlblogs.com/
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Not trying to be a jerk or nothing but did you mean Bronson Arroyo? I think you have he and Bobby Abreu's names mixed. I personally would love to see Arroyo in a braves uni, He does well when theres a winning formula. No one can win in Cincy anymore. When he was with the red sox he was a beast! I think the peavy deal will get done and if it does we WILL lose Yunel, possibly hernandez and morton, I hate to see him or Jo Jo go they have a tremendous upside and they will mature into fine ML players. only time will tell if they are of the same calibre as Glavine or Smoltz. I believe that Wren has a pretty good idea that Tommy and Smoltz will be able to go. if we get to top rotation guys we could use tommy as #5 starter and give him off days. I am going to givesome what a rotation possibility
1.Peavy** assuming the trade works
2.Burnett*/Lowe*/Jurrjens/
3Jurrjens( if 1 of the other #2 is signedthen shift the rotation forward without Peavy trade)
Arroyo** I feel this trade will be made ( if the Peavy trade works and we sign lowe or burnett shift the rotation back)
4Campillo/Hampton*/ Vasquez**/Garland**
5. Glavine* Hampton* /Byrd/ Smoltz but i think he is bound for the bullpen
* if signed
** if traded
Wildcards would be Ben Sheets and Bartolo Colon I dont think the Braves would go wrong with Colon but Sheets is a risk although his stuff is phenomenal. No one is even talking about these guys either ripe for a stealthy signing.
line up would look like this too
1.Rafael Furcal*/ Blanco /Anderson- I like andersons speed but if we dont get someone with a stick then this is the options i see
2.Yunel if not traded/ KJ/Prado/Infante* i believe we will get him back renteria if we dont get Furcal
3. Chipper
4 Manny Ramirez/Mark Teixiera just kidding but a guy can dream right?
4. Dye/McCann/Magglio
5 Francouer
6.Diaz/Blanco
7Kotchman unless we move him and get Tex back lol NOT
8 KJ if we sign **** named Furcal/schafer
9.pitcher
this is not intended to be anything other than top scenarios i see that may or may not happen purely a guess.
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OK, I'm a Padres fan. Obviously, this is upsetting to me. I don't want to lose my ace. It's bad enough that we've practically let Trevor walk out the door. But our front office is having major problems. They are going insane, I think. Towers needs to deal with Jake. He can't do anything with the rest of the team until Jake decides if he's staying or going. So KT is going to want to get rid of Jake soon. But the best deal might have already gone by. There's a rumor that Khalil Greene might not be shopped anymore, so that might mean that the Braves' deal is with the second baseman and not the shortstop. This deal might get done really soon. Welcome to mlblogs, by the way. Check out my blog!
http://kaybee.mlblogs.com
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Chipper10fan, sorry, I definitely meant Arroyo. I'm about to correct it.
Also, I'm not so sure we will get Peavy, the likes of Burnett or Lowe, AND Garland.
I just don't have a good feeling about Burnett or Lowe. Especially Lowe. He WILL NOT be a Brave next year.
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Yes I know what you mean about Lowe.
At first I thought he was most likely to be a Brave out of every other pitcher, but then Boras stepped in and wanted a deal that is never going to happen. Also he wants to be on the Red Sox, so it doesn't really matter anymore. The Sox are also gonna get Tazawa. I'm a little disappointed about that. Not only does he not get to be a Braves, he's going to be stuck in Boston's minor league teams for a couple of years. In Atlanta, he would have been a starter this coming year.
http://darion.mlblogs.com/
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Darion, I'm sick of Boston and New York just flashing their money around. You can count on a blog about this soon. There is one pet-peeve of mine regarding MLB, I HATE THE BUDGET/PAYROLL SYSTEM!
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I saw your blog promoted on the community blog, and then I saw it on the recent activity thing. Then I saw your comment on Darion's blog, with the Christian mention, so I came over and you were talking about my guy Jake Peavy! It was really cool to find it!
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Hey Luke! Thanks for checking out my site. I just posted another blog that includes an interesting proposal for Jake Peavy. You may want to take a look. That was pretty cool getting mentioned on the main page. I just kinda decided on a whim to start a blog yesterday. Good luck with your new audience and I will keep in touch. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
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I have noticed that Towers is still trying to say the cubs want Peavy even after Sweet Lou said they were done ... And im hearing the Angels are going to bid on him now.. I still believe that it is just smoke and mirrors if Peavy wants to be here he will be here. Key words for him ar wants to stay in NL no trade clause and desires to be in Atlanta. I dont think an AL team has too much of a shot.. but like a few times befroe i have been wrong.
Luke I enjoy reading on this blog and the other guys blogs and links. I agree we wont get all the guys i mentioned just saying 2 or 3 of them will out of all mentioned will probably happen.
most likely to get Hampton (1 yr deal) maybe on the cheap too.
Smoltzie will be back maybe a 1 yr deal I couldnt begin to figure his salary but hopefully it wont hit the budget too hard. I would offer glavine a 1yr deal if he can go too. I believe Smoltz will go back to the closer role with gonzalez and soriano and moylan primary set up men. without any signifigant signings we could possibly have a rotation of Jurrjens, Campillo,Hampton,Glavine and jojo and morton, I dont know how Hanson is progressing but he should be there sometime so this is why i think wren isnt selling the farm to get an arm. we need 1 top tier and one 2nd tier guy and if you sign 2 or all three of hampton glavine smoltz you can have a managers favorite problem. ALOT of quality pitchers. I wonder if this is the year they let smoltzie play in CF he is actually quite good out there. not for a whole season.. just an inning or 2. I look forward to reading your comments.. Thanks, Scott Howes- chipper10fan
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Here's the Braves 2009 rotation...
Starters
1. A.J. Burnett
2. John Smoltz
3. Jair Jurjjens
4. Mike Hampton
5. Jorge Campillo
Bullpen
1.Mike Gonzalez
2. Rafael Soriano
3. Peter Moylan
4. Will Ohman
5. Jeff Bennett
6. Buddy Carlyle
Lineup
1. Josh Anderson
2. Yunel Escobar
3. Chipper Jones
4. Jermaine Dye
5. Brian McCann
6. Jeff Francoeur
7. Casey Kotchman
8. Martin Prado
9. Pitcher(Of course)
-Angels will get Peavy
-Kelly will we traded (sad to say).
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Kingjp no Peavy deal? If that doesn't happen, we would still have Morton, Boyer, and Jojo. You also left Acosta also out, but was it on purpose? Somltz will go to the Bullpen and either Parr, Jojo, Morton, Redmond, or James will take his place. Who will KJ get traded for? Dye? Just wondering.
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I like Todd Redmond if Smoltz isn't a starter. And to answer your question on Acosta, no I really like Acosta anywhere but in the closers role(of course he won't get that role again). Acosta has better stuff than Soriano, not to say he's even close to being Soriano, but I'm saying that we should keep him in our system.
KJ will more than likely not get traded but I'm suggesting that maybe he should. Although Prado lacks the power of KJ, he will win your more games because of his consistency. I also think he's a clubhouse favorite and gets everyone pumped up. He plays with alot of emotion and intensity. Every ball club needs a Prado.
Back to the Kelly trade; maybe we can trade Kelly for a proven starter. Remember, there are so many teams eyeing Kelly.
And on the Peavy deal; I will never be for a trade for him. Anyway, I think and hope the Angels will get him. Maybe trade Jered Weaver and Sean Rodriguez for Peavy. Damn good trade I think so. It would have to include Weaver in the trade.
Jo Jo and Morton will start next season in AAA.
And Lastly, the Dye trade...
The Sox want a pitcher and another minor-leaguer for him.
So give them Jo Jo, and Josh Anderson
Dye's trade value decreases because of him only being signed for two more years at around 11 mil each. That's not all that cheap, of course we can afford it though.
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It's been reported that the Sox are shopping Javier Vazquez as well as Dye. He would be a good pickup. here's his profile page...
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=134320
He's signed to two more years at around 11 mil a year.
Maybe trade them Charlie Morton and Blaine Boyer for Javy.
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Oh ok. Thanks for being more specific. And I have heard a couple of rumors about Vazquez, but he isn't worth Boyer and Morton. Morton has a lot of potential and so does Boyer, even though they had bad seasons. Wren will find the right deal to put both JV and Dye in Atlanta though.
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I didn't think he was worth that much either. Just a thought.
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